基于遗传算法的装备使用保障费用灰色组合预测

Gray Combination Forecast Of Equipment Support Cost Based On Genetic Algorithm

针对目前对武器装备寿命周期费用估算建模难以实施的情况,以准确预测武器装备寿命周期费用的主要组成部分—装备使用保障费用为出发点,依据装备使用保障费用的特点建立了装备使用保障费用的灰色组合预测模型,指出了用蚁群算法优化组合权系数的不足,并提出了新的优化方法—遗传算法。最后,结合实例验证说明了该模型的预测效果优于蚁群优化的方法,为准确估算武器装备寿命周期费用提供了依据。

For currently estimating weapons and equipment life cycle cost and modeling are difficult to implement,so as to accurately predict the main components of the life cycle cost of weapons and equipment-equipment support cost as a fundamental starting point.Based on characteristics of equipment support cost,a gray combination prediction model is established.Points out the shortcomings of optimizing the weights of combination by ant colony algorithm,and proposes a new optimization method-genetic algorithm.Finally,the example shows that the prediction of the model is better than the ant colony optimization method and provides a basis for accurately estimating the life cycle cost of weapon and equipment.