液化天然气泄漏的事故树分析

Fault Tree Analysis on Liquid Natural Gas Leakage

液化天然气(LNG)作为当今世界增长最快的清洁能源,在中国得到越来越广泛的应用,但在储存过程中,一旦发生泄漏将会导致重大事故。为保证清洁能源的生产和应用,LNG 泄漏后的模型和扩散后的危害研究已得到广泛的关注。事故树分析是一种表示与导致灾害事故有关的各种因素因果关系和逻辑关系的分析法,具有直观、全面、有效等优点。目前利用事故树分析法对 LNG的泄漏还缺乏系统性研究。本文采用最小割集法对引起 LNG 泄漏的因素进行系统分析,定量确定了影响因素的顺序,结果表明,罐体和管路的失效以及人为因素是导致 LNG 泄露的主要因素。从此入手加强防范,必能提高 LNG 安全工作的水平,必能确保其储存的安全性、运行可靠性以及安全对策的准确性提供了可靠的理论依据。

Liquid Natural Gas（LNS） is the clean energy which is the fastest growing energy in the world and is increasingly used in China.LNG leakage would induce to a nasty accident during its storage.To assure the production and application of the clean energy,the studies on the LNG leakage are of great importance.The leakage model and the damage after LNG disperses have been widely researched.Fault Tree Analysis（FTA） is a method with causal and logical relation indicating all kinds of factors causing danger.It has advantages of intuition,comprehension,and efficiency,etc.Systematical studies on LNG leakage using FTA are short up to now.Based on FTA,the factors causing LNG leakage were systematically analyzed.The order of factors influencing LNG leakage accidents was quantitatively determined.It indicates that the tank,the pipeline and man-made factors are the mainly reasons for the leakage.In order to prevent the above mentioned phenomena,the reliable theory evidence involving accuracy of safety countermeasures is provided for improving the level of safety operation,ensuring the safety of LNG storage and the reliability of operation.