摘要
The dynamic process of the 2008 Wenehuan earthquake is simulated by finite-element method （ FEM）, and the results suggest that we may be able to estimate the occurrence time, location, and magnitude of similar earthquakes in the future. Thus a numerical earthquake prediction （NEP） program is proposed; the reliability of it is dependent on its gradual refinement and the parameters used in the models.
The dynamic process of the 2008 Wenehuan earthquake is simulated by finite-element method （ FEM）, and the results suggest that we may be able to estimate the occurrence time, location, and magnitude of similar earthquakes in the future. Thus a numerical earthquake prediction （NEP） program is proposed; the reliability of it is dependent on its gradual refinement and the parameters used in the models.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation ofChina(40974020,40074024)
National 973 Project of China2008(B425704)
State Key Laboratory of Earthguake Dynamics Project(LED2008B02)
