中国近期耕地资源的变化及其对粮食产能的影响

Changes of Agriculture Resources and the Influence of Grain Production Capacity of China in Recent Years

依据中国近10 a(2000-2008年)耕地资源的变化,分析了粮食综合生产能力的变化及其影响因素,包括耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食单产水平和粮食总产量的年际变化率以及四者之间的相关关系。结果表明,耕地面积对粮食产量并无决定性关系,影响我国近期粮食产能的最主要因素是粮食的播种面积和单产水平,两者的年际变化率均与粮食总产量年际变化率呈较强的相关性,变化趋势基本一致。最后基于研究所得出的结论对保护耕地与粮食安全的措施进行了探讨。

According to our country in recent years（from 2000 to 2008） changes in cultivated land resources,this paper analyzes changes in the overall grain production capacity and the influencing factors,including the correlation between the cultivation area,the grain sowing area,the grain yield level,and the changing ratio of the overall grain outputs between years.The results show that for food production and cultivated land area in China without decisive relations,China＇s recent food production capacity of the most important factor is the grain sowing area,and yield level,both the interannual variation with total grain output interannual variation are a strong correlation,which trends are basically the same.Finally,based on the conclusion of the paper,we explored the protection of cultivated land and grain security measures.