2010年小麦成熟期推迟的气候因子探析

Analysis of Meteorological Factors for Delaying Wheat Maturity in 2010

从分析气候（温度）因子着手,探讨2010年小麦晚熟的成因。选择4个年份,其中2001-2002年和2008-2009年是暖冬年份,2002-2003年和2009-2010年是冷冬年份。研究结果表明,年份之间小麦成熟期差异显著,但这一差异与生长期间的月平均气温、活动积温、有效积温、负积温、有效积温天数等相关性不显著,而与11月至翌年4月间的20℃以上温度累积天数（D20）相关达0.1显著水平。据此建立了回归方程y=656.539-2.673x。该方程可用来预测小麦生长期中所需20℃以上温度的天数和成熟期等信息。如,小麦10月上旬播种,6月初成熟,11月至翌年4月份至少需要15~20个20℃以上温度日,否则,生育期推迟。该现象也暗示,生育期内气温波动更有利于小麦的生长发育。

The data of meteorological factors,especially temperature,were analyzed to explore the reason of wheat late-maturing in 2010.Four years from 2001 to 2010 were selected for the analysis,of which 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 belonged to warm winter years,while 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 belonged to cold winter years.The results of analysis showed that the wheat mature periods were significantly different between years.The difference was not correlated with the monthly average temperature,active and effective accumulated temperature,negative accumulated temperature,and days of effective accumulated temperature.It had significant correlation with the days over 20℃（D20） from November to next April.A regression equation,y=656.539-2.673x,was established based on the correlation.From the equation two important parameters,D20 and mature period could be predicted.For example,if wheat sowing period was in the first ten days of October,and its maturation was expected in early days of June,15 to 20 D20 would be needed during November to next April.Otherwise,the mature period would be delayed.The phenomenon also suggested that fluctuated temperature during the growing period was conducive to growth and development of winter wheat.