自然驱动是全球气候变化的重要因素

Natural Drive is the Important Factor of Global Climate Change

2007年IPCC公布的第四次评估报告指出,过去50 a观测到的地球平均温度升高很可能(90%以上)是由人类活动引起的,其中主要是人类活动引起的温室气体排放的增加。高精度的卫星数据分析结果显示,30 a来全球气温呈振荡变化,除受厄尔尼诺、火山活动等重大自然现象影响外,并未出现异常增温现象,仍处在正常波动范围内;加勒比海地区的历史资料显示,近几千年来海平面以几乎恒定的速率上升,与大气温度无明显关系;从冰芯中获取的信息表明,CO2浓度与气温升高没有必然联系。研究表明,太阳活动、地球系统自组织作用及行星对全球气候变化具有重要的驱动作用。因此,自然驱动是全球气候变化的主要原因,而人类对全球气候变化的作用很小。

The fourth IPCC（UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） assessment report,which was released in 2007,insisted that the rise of observed earth＇s average temperature over the past 50 years was very likely（90%） caused by human activity.The increasing of greenhouse gases emissions caused by human activities is the main factor.However,the high-precision satellite data analysis shows that global temperature in the last 30 years is normal.Except that it affected by El Nino,volcanic activity and other natural phenomena,the global temperature does not show abnormal warming phenomenon.The Caribbean historical data shows that the sea level rise in an almost constant rate over the last few thousand years,and it has no significant relationship with the atmospheric temperature.The ice cores data shows that CO2 concentration has no necessarily connection with the temperature.Studies show that solar activity,the role of the earth system and planetary self-organization has an important driving role to global climate change.Therefore,the natural drive is the main factor of global climate change,and the human effect on global climate change is very small.