社会稳定问题预警研究初探

Problems on Early Warning Research of the Social Stability Issue

以引发群体性突发事件为关切的社会稳定问题,在微观层面上因为政策过程不完整、政策导致的利益分配差异化而形成,进而影响到社会稳定问题的问题域。户籍、政策稳定程度是政府界定问题域的基本维度,前者限定了与社会稳定问题密切相关的公共品提供的范围和程度;后者限定了既有社会稳定问题和现有社会稳定问题的性质和范围。社会预警指标体系设计应关注预警层次、指标定义、主观指标、逆向指标、指标相关性等问题,相应的信息系统还存在缺乏整合、覆盖面不足的问题。

The social stability issue concerned on massive emergency triggering is formed by the incomplete policy process and benefit distribution differences caused by policy in the micro level,thereby affects the domain of social stability issue.Household and the policy stability degree are the basic dimensions of problem domain government defined.The former limits the scope and extent of public goods provision which are closely related to the social stability,while the latter limits the nature and scope of both social stability and existing social stability issue.Social early warning indicator system designing should focus on the following issues,such as early warming level,indicator definition,subjective indicator,reverse indicator and indicator correlation etc.The corresponding information system also has the problems of lacking in integration and insufficient coverage.