美国对华直接投资对中美贸易影响的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国吸收利用外资取得了举世瞩目的成果。美国作为中国最重要的外资来源国和贸易出口国,已对促进中美贸易经济的发展发挥着越来越重要的作用。然而,在中美双边贸易得到快速发展的同时,也出现了中美贸易的不平衡问题。本文从投资与贸易关系的角度出发,通过定量分析检验美国在华直接投资与中美贸易之间是否存在长期协整关系以及双向或单向的格兰杰因果关系,最终结果表明,美国在华直接投资的增长确实促进了中国对美国的出口及中美贸易差额的扩大。针对新形势下中美贸易的特点,文章提出了促进美国对华直接投资与中美贸易协调发展的政策建议。

Since China＇s reform and opening to the world,great achievements have been made in absorbing and utilizing foreign capital.As the most important foreign capital source and export country,the United States plays increasingly more importance role in promoting the development of Sino-U.S.trade.However,with rapid development of Sino-U.S.bilateral trade,the problem of unbalanced Sino-U.S.trade has appeared.From the perspective of investment and trade relation,this paper quantitatively analyzes and verify the long-term co-integration between U.S.direct investment in China and Sino-U.S.trade,and round trip or one way Granger causal relationship.The final results has demonstrated that The growth of U.S.direct investment in China has actually promoted the export of China to the United States and expansion of trade gap between China and the United States.In response to the characteristics of Sino-U.S.trade under new situation,the paper has come up with the policy suggestions for promoting U.S.direct investment in China and coordinated development of Sino-U.S trade.