货币错配、汇率升值和经济波动

Currency Mismatch,Revaluation and Output Fluctuations

本文在考虑当前东亚各国普遍存在的资产型货币错配情况下,将Ber-nanke等(1999)模型推广到小国开放经济中,分析了由外生冲击导致的汇率升值影响经济的传导路径,以及这种影响程度所取决的因素。研究发现,当一个国家存在资产型货币错配时,汇率升值降低企业净值,并通过金融加速器机制提高企业的外部融资成本,进而影响企业的投资和产出。模型的数值模拟结果表明,升值导致的产出下降幅度与该国的货币错配程度和金融加速器效应直接相关。当该国货币错配程度较高,金融加速器效应显著时,外部冲击导致的升值可能使经济陷入"流动性陷阱"。

Considering the asset currency mismatch , this paper extends Bernanke et al. （1999） to a small open economy to study both the pathways and the factors from exchange rate revaluation to the real economy caused by exogenous shocks. The paper finds that when one country faces asset currency mismatch, exchange rate revaluation reduces corporate net worth, and further promotes the cost of external financing of enterprises through the financial accelerator mechanism, which in turn affects investment and output. Finally, considering China＇s current situation, the paper gives the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.