外贸顺差会降低就业水平？--基于匹配模型的实证分析

Does Trade Surplus Decreases Employment?

通过借鉴Pissarides匹配模型的思想，构建包含净出口额与就业等因素在内的模型框架，在此基础上利用2004～2008年中国行业面板数据，实证分析外贸顺差对就业的影响机制与程度。结果表明：已经拥有庞大贸易顺差的基础上，顺差的进一步增加不能提高就业水平，反而会造成就业人数的下降。本文研究表明，应该通过制定相应的进口支持政策，保障出口与进口的协调发展，减少顺差来优化国内经济发展结构，促进国内经济发展质量提升和就业水平提高。

By drawing on the idea of Pissarides matching model, this paper builds a model framework including net exports and employment. With the aid of Chinese sections＇ panel data in 2004 - 2008, the paper analyzes the mechanism of international trade and employment. The results show that： with a huge trade surplus, a further increase in surplus can not increase the level of employment, and even results in a decline in employment, which makes the support to the trade- screening- employment mechanism. This study shows that the import should be supported through the development of appropriate policy to ensure coordinated development of exports and imports, to maximize the positive impact of domestic economic development, to optimize the structure of the domestic economy, and to increase the level of employment.