基于HYSPLIT的典型工业集群区大气污染应急预警系统——以天津临港工业区为例

Air-pollution emergency warning system proposed based on HYSPLIT dispersion model——a case application in Tianjin Harbor industrial park

为使在突发性大气污染事故发生后能够快速确定其危险程度和范围,在天津临港工业区建立了基于混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模式(HYSPLIT)的大气污染应急预警系统。该系统由WRF-ARW数值预报模式、HYSPLIT大气扩散模式、地理信息系统及工业园区污染源数据库等部分组成。作为该系统核心的HYSPLIT模式,使用拉格朗日法与欧拉法、质点模型与烟团模型相结合的方法进行计算,模拟物质在大气中的传输、扩散和沉降。系统水平和垂直分辨率分别为0.01°×0.01°和1 m,WRF-ARW 24 h气象预报数据每8 h更新1次,且在工业区内建有气象观测站提供实时气象数据以应对特殊和意外状况。污染源数据库包括了各企业的地理位置信息和各排放物种的物理和化学特征。系统的结果使用以Google maps为核心的可视化网页输出。

In order to make a quick determination of the spatial extent and severity of the pollution risk brought about by industrial air pollution accidents, the paper has proposed an air pollution emergency warning system based on the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model （HYSPLIT） in Tianjin Harbor Industrial Park. The system consists of a WRF - ARW numerical weather forecasting model, a HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model, a geographic information system and the emission database. As the nucleus of the system, HYSPLIT is a complete model for calculating trajectories of the complex dispersion and deposition simulations both with the Eulerian and Lagrangian methods. With either puff or particle approaches, the HYSPLIT model has its horizontal and vertical resolutions of 0.01 degree （latitude） by 0.01 degree （longitude） and lm. It can receive WRF - ARW meteorology data of the 24 hours. It also possesses the resolution of 1 km × 1 km, in every 8 hours and MM5 meteorological data of next 48 hours and the resolution of 3 km × 3 km every other day as a substitute when the WRF- ARW data were not available. In the industrial park, a simple weather-forecasting station was set up to provide instant temperature, humidity and windchange in-situ, which can be used for special occasions of small area or in emergency. The emission database includes the physical and chemical characteristic of emission species and the locations of the emission sources. In addition, the simulation results can be displayed on a website based on Google maps. As is shown in its system, the system can also simulate and forecast the emergency air pollution accidents in a real-time manner easily. The system can also be used to provide scientific references for preparing emergency response plans as well as for simulating air pollution accidents as a database for preparing emergency plans.