建筑火灾损失分段分析研究

On the building fire statistics and evaluation based on the sub-sector damage-loss study

以某省1999—2007年火灾统计数据资料为基础,采用火灾发生原因为分类判据,对建筑火灾统计数据进行详细的分析、评估。火灾统计数据按照损失的大小分为5个损失分段,分别对各火灾损失分段的统计数据进行分析。结果表明,当前危害最大的是发生次数最少、单起火灾损失在10万元以上的火灾。利用灰色关联分析法对每个损失段内火灾统计数据进行分析,得到各种火灾原因对火灾发生次数和火灾损失的影响重要程度次序,从而确定每个损失段内火灾发生次数和火灾损失总体发展趋势的主要影响因素。分析结果表明:电气、违章操作、用火不慎、吸烟和自燃引发火灾的次数和造成的火灾损失是影响总体火灾次数和损失的主要因素。分析结果可用于确定消防工作的重点和薄弱环节。

Tiffs article aims to propose a detailed fire loss analysis method based on the building fire incidence statistics of a province during the period from 1999 to 2007, in according to the national classification criteria for the building fire statistics, which is usually divided into five sub-loss levels, that is the levels of the economic loss in terms of money between 0 - 1 000 RMB, between 1 000 - 10 000 RMB, and those of 10 000 - 50 000 RMB, 50 000 -100 000 RMB, and then over 100 000 RMB. To be accurate, of all the above 100 000 sub-loss fire levels, few of the fire cases would go beyond 100 000 RMB in a single fire. To be sure, no more than 1% . 42 % of such fire cases were beyond the loss of 100 000 RMB. Thus, it can be seen that the fires whose loss over 100 000 RMB are the most serious factors influencing high building fire rate loss in China. In addition, such kinds of fire are also the chief target of the fire prevention. When Gray Correlation Analysis was used to analyze the relation between the causes and the fire loss in different sub-losses, it was found that the main factors influencing the fire-incidence and fire loss are the electric stroke arousing fire, illegal operations, careless use of fire, smoking and spontaneous combustion ground and underground fires, and what not. These kinds of fire causes should be treated as the focus of fire prevention. Thus, it can be seen that the analysis resuits can be used to determine the critical reasons for fire-incidence and the weak points of fire prevention as well as the fire-fighting work.