基于社会网络理论的恐怖组织隐蔽网络分析方法

Study on the terrorist covert networks from the perspective of social network analysis

针对以"基地"为典型的国际恐怖组织网络化运作的趋势,从组织行为学的角度分析恐怖组织网络特点及其带来的挑战,总结社会网络分析在描述恐怖分子静态网络特征,定位关键人物方面的基本方法,运用等价性分析从整体结构上评估恐怖组织隐蔽网络,对网络作基于人际交互流向的指挥控制结构脆弱性分析,利用网络中心度量化及派系参与分析方法找出网络中的核心人物,并以美国大使馆爆炸案为例进行实证分析。研究表明,结合网络结构等价分析,基于人际交互流向的指控结构分析、网络中心度量化及派系参与方法可以有效评估恐怖组织隐蔽网络并挖掘网络核心人物。

This paper is to present its research results on how to use the social network analysis method to analyze the terrorist network structure and detect the vulnerability of such covert networks. In proceeding with our study, we have given a brief recount of what the ＂new terrorism＂ is, how it has evolved, and how it interferes with any detective activities oriented on them in hoping to gain access to their network operations and insights into their activities so as to be able to work out tit-for-tat count measures in dealing with them. In doing so, we have divided our study into four stages： （ 1 ） the Contextual Background; （2） the Relational Data Study Stage; （3） Network Criteria Analysis, and ; （4） the Application of Destabilisation Analysis Techniques. The so-called contextual background analysis is aimed at making a comprehensive analysis of the physical environment of the network, the group itseff, the individual figures inside the network, and, particularly, the mutual connection and interaction among these figures. The so-called relational data stage intends to identify the individual figures within the nuclear cell. The information data on their relations can be stored in a binary one-to-one matrix form, in which A-to-B interaction can be represented with number 1, and number 0 （zero） to stand for either on-going interaction or no interaction between any two members, though it merely indicates if there exists any two-way connection between the terrorist elements. Here in this stage we may present a case study to introduce what data can be accessed from the center of Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems. Here in the case study, the cell from the binary matrix can be used to construct a sociograph or a network analysis program named ORA 1.9.5, which helps to analyze the criteria of density, cohesion and the Core-Periphe situation. The next stage is to use the Structural Equivalence and the CONCOR approach to decypher the characteristics of the network by combining the centripetal measures, clique analysis and the degree centrality so as to make clear the betweenness centrality, the closeness＇centrality communitation of C2 structure and the cliques-engaged method to locate the core member. Such criteria can be searched through ORA. Such counterterrorism techniques are traditionally used to neutralize members of the terrorist networks either through capture-alive or trace-analysis of the killed members. The removal of a node from a network can help to make a cell less usable and adaptable, and reduce its communicate activities or eventually crash down such networks and their terrorist activities.