胶林寒害与橡胶小蠹虫发生为害的关系浅析

Analysis of the relationships between cold damages and population of the rubber borer in rubber plantation

[目的]探索利用气象及寒害指标预测橡胶小蠹虫发生的方法和途径。[方法]对我国植胶区历年橡胶小蠹虫发生为害率与当年橡胶受低温寒害影响等数据进行分析,拟合低温持续时间、极端低温、橡胶树寒害率、寒害危害程度与橡胶小蠹虫发生为害的关系模型。[结果]数据分析及模型拟合均表明,低温持续时间越长、极端低温越低,橡胶树寒害率越高、寒害危害程度越大,则橡胶小蠹虫发生为害越严重。所拟合的模型经检验均达到显著水平。[结论]生产中可以应用拟合的模型对田间橡胶小蠹虫的发生为害进行间接监测。

[Objective] To predict the occurrence of rubber borers by using meteorological and cold damage indices. [Method] The relationships between damage rate of rubber borers and cold damage of rubber in the past few years were analyzed. The regression model of various cold damage parameters of rubber tree and rubber borer population was simulated. [Result] The longer the low temperature duration and the lower the extremely low temperature, the heavier the cold damage rate and damage grade of rubber tree. [Conclusion] The regression models established in this study could be used in indirect monitoring of the occurrence of rubber borers in the field.