中国的经济贸易、报复能力及国际地位与对华反倾销——基于总量和中国视角的对华反倾销调查实证研究

China's Economy and Trade,Retaliatory Capability,International Status and Anti-dumping against China——An empirical Study of Anti-dumping Investigations from Both Aggregation and China Perspectives

采用负二项回归计数模型,从总量和中国视角分析了1995-2009年间世界对华反倾销调查的影响因素。结果发现,中国的经济贸易、报复能力、国际地位对我国遭受反倾销调查都有显著影响。具体影响为：中国的GDP增长率的上升、中国对主要对华反倾销调查国家的出口额占世界对这些国家的出口总额占比的上升、人民币实际有效汇率变动率的上升、中国对外反倾销调查数量的上升都会增加世界对中国的反倾销调查数量;中国自主要对华反倾销调查国家的进口增长率的上升、中国入世则抑制了世界对华反倾销调查的数量。

Based on the count data model of negative binomial regression,this article analyzes the factors of anti-dumping investigations against China during the years of 1995-2009 in the world from both aggregation and China perspectives.It finds out that China＇s economy and trade,retaliatory capability and international status have the significant influence on the anti-dumping investigations against China.Specifically speaking,the rise of China＇s GDP growth rate,the increasing proportion of China＇s export to the main countries which make anti-dumping investigations against China in the world export,the upward RMB real effective exchange rate,and the increasing number of China＇s anti-dumping investigations against foreign countries will push more anti-dumping investigations against China.The rise in growth rate of China＇s import from the main countries that make anti-dumping investigations against China,and China＇s WTO membership will reduce the anti-dumping investigations against China.