通货膨胀的决定因素:中国的经验研究

The Decisive Factors behind Inflation:Based on China's Empirical Research

本文采用两阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)对中国通货膨胀的决定因素进行了实证研究。文章发现:在样本期内,通胀惯性是造成中国通胀的最大影响因素,GDP过快增长是第二大导因,流动性过剩虽然也促成通胀,但是其不具决定影响;股票市场财富效应对通胀的影响非常小;国际食品价格上升对中国物价有统计上显著但不是很大的推升作用,而国际能源涨价显著地推高PPI但对CPI的影响统计上不显著。此外,人民币实际有效汇率升值能够降低通胀,但是幅度不是很大。

The article adopts Two-Stage Least Squares（TSLS） to empirically study the decisive factors behind China＇s inflation.The in-sample results show that inflation inertia is the biggest decisive factor behind China＇s inflation,fast-growing GDP the second.Excess liquidity promotes the inflation,but it is not a decisive factor.The wealth effect of stock market has little influence on inflation.The rising price of international foods has statistically significant yet not big boosting function on China＇s goods price,while the rising price of international energies can evidently push China＇s PPI up without statistically significant impact on CPI.Besides,the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate can reduce inflation in small scale.