我国央行相对独立性的测度与通货膨胀关系

The Measurement of China's Central Bank Relative Independence and its Relationship with the Inflation

基于1978-2008年的经验数据,引入收入不平等、固定资产投资等宏观经济变量,通过多元回归嵌套模型的建立和运用,本文对我国中央银行独立性(CBI)与通货膨胀的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现CBI与通货膨胀不仅呈负相关关系,并且是通过与基尼系数和固定资产投资增长率的交互作用实现的,CBI指数每增加一个单位,通货膨胀率大约会降低3.54个百分点。研究还发现CBI存在一个作用的适度区间,即:CBIt∈(14.28,20.65)。基于此,我们认为,在14.28至20.65的区间内适度增大CBI可抑制通货膨胀。

Based on empirical data during 1978-2008,the article introduces macroeconomic variables such as unbalanced income and fixed assets investment,establishes and applies multiple regression nested model,and conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between China＇s Central Bank Independence（CBI） and inflation.The results show that CBI is negatively related to inflation by interacting with Gini Coefficient and fixed assets investment growth rate.For a unit increase of the CBI index,the inflation rate will drop approximately 3.54 percent.The research also finds a moderate intervals for CBI index,which is between 14.28 and 20.65.During the moderate intervals,we could raise up CBI index to reduce the inflation.