基于集对分析原理的地铁运营安全评价

Study of Safety Assessment for Subway Operation Based on Set-Pair Analysis

为了客观评价地铁运营安全状况,克服传统安全评价方法不能同时考虑信息的确定性和不确定性问题,针对影响地铁这一复杂巨系统运营安全不确定性因素多、随机性大的特点,提出基于集对分析的地铁运营安全评价.首先,采用层次分析法确定评价指标权重;然后,基于集对分析原理,从总体和局部层面分别对天津地铁运营进行同异反结构分析;最后,讨论了差异度系数对评价结果的影响程度.评价结果表明,该评价方法用于地铁运营系统安全状况的分析评价切实可行.该评价方法可为地铁运营系统安全隐患排查、安全技术及管理措施制定提供了技术上的保障,提高了评价结果的客观性和科学性.

In order to overcome the shortages of the traditional assessment methods that cannot consider the definiteness and indefiniteness of the influence factors simultaneously,the theory of set-pair analysis is preposed to assess the subway operating status.Firstly,AHP is used to determine the assessment indexe weights.Secondly,the set-pair analysis theory is used to analyze the same-indefinite-contrary structures in Tianjin subway operating system from the overall and the local layers.Thirdly,it is discussed on the basis of the indexe weight that the difference coefficient influences on the assessment analysis results.So the technical guarantee is provided for making a clean sweep to the hidden safety trouble and for developing safety measures from technology and management.As a result,the assessment shows that the method of set-pair analysis is effective in appraising the subway system safety.