我国天然气资源潜力及其在未来低碳经济发展中的重要地位

The natural gas resource potential and its important status in the coming low-carbon economy

以天然气发展趋势分析为基础,对我国天然气的资源潜力、加快发展的有利条件、2030年以后可能达到的规模以及在未来低碳经济发展中的地位进行了系统研究。研究结果表明,我国常规与非常规天然气资源都很丰富,而且天然气工业发展比石油大约晚30年,目前刚刚进入大发展的初期,未来具有十分良好的发展前景,预计到2030年我国天然气年产量有望达到3 000亿m3,并有望保持到2050年。同时,研究发现我国毗邻中亚—俄罗斯、中东和亚太三大富气区,具有多元化利用国外资源的区位优势。通过自产与引进并重,2030—2050年天然气在我国一次能源结构中比例有望达到10%以上,对改善能源结构和推动低碳经济发展将发挥重要作用。

Based on the analysis of natural gas development trend,a system research on natural gas resource potential,the favorable condition for accelerating natural gas exploration,its future scale after 2030 and its status on the coming low-carbon economy are carried out.The research results show that,both conventional and unconventional natural gas resources of China are very rich.The natural gas industry,which developed later than oil industry for about 30 years,has just entered the initial stage of rapid development and has a very bright development prospect,with a forecasting annual yield arriving at 3×1011 m3 by 2030,and this trend will possibly keep to 2050.And study also shows that our country is adjacent to three gas-rich areas： Central Asia-Russia,Middle East and Asia Pacific area,so we can take the advantage of our good position to make best use of oversea energy resource.By producing energy at home and importing from abroad,the proportion of natural gas will probably reach more than 10 % in our national primary energy structure in 2030—2050,which is of great importance to change our national energy structure and promote a low-carbon economy.