环境空气质量约束下珠江三角洲能源消费模式研究

Model of the energy consumption pattern of Pearl River Delta under constraints of air quality

随着经济的快速发展、能源消费的快速增长及以煤为主的能源消费结构使得城市发展面临越来越严峻的空气污染,深入研究城市环境空气质量对能源消费的约束作用非常重要.围绕这一管理需求,系统研究了能源消费受环境空气质量约束的基本内涵和约束特征,剖析了影响约束力的关键因子,提出了总量约束、结构约束和布局约束3种主要约束类型,建立了分析约束力的模型框架和数学分析方法;并以珠江三角洲为案例,定量研究了空气质量目标对煤炭消费总量、煤炭消费最大增长速度、一次能源消费结构的约束要求.研究表明,由于珠江三角洲地区能源消费的高度集中,区域空气环境对能源消费总量尤其是煤炭消费总量已构成刚性约束,为实现该地区空气质量的显著改善,实行煤炭消费性总量控制、加强煤炭洁净化利用迫在眉睫.

Urban air pollution has become a severe problem for Chinese cities due to the rapid development of the economy,continuous increase of energy consumption and the dominant position of coal in the energy structure.It is very important to investigate the constraint effect of urban air quality on energy consumption.In this study,comprehensive research has been carried out to understand the basic connotations and features of energy consumption under constraints of air quality,to identify the key factors affecting the constraint force.The concepts of three primary constraint types,e.g.,total amount constraint,structure constraint and distribution constraint were developed;and a model framework and mathematical analysis method to analyze constraint force was established.With this model,a case study on the Pearl River Delta（PRD） was conducted to quantify the limit of coal consumption,the maximum growth rate of coal consumption and energy under the constraint of a specific air quality target.The quantitative analysis suggests that control of coal consumption cap and application of clean-coal technologies is critical to improve the air quality of the PRD area.