人民币汇率对中国物价影响的实证研究

物价和汇率是开放经济体中两个核心的经济变量,两者间的相互作用对各国经济的影响也日渐显著。采用规范分析以及定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法,在研究汇率的传递效应基础上,利用Eviews6.0软件,采用协整检验和因果检验等方法,对人民币汇率改革以来的汇率对物价的传递效应进行实证研究,可以发现在2005年7月到2009年2月这一特定时期内,汇率不是物价变动的原因。

Prices and exchange rates are two keys＇ economic variables in open economy.The interaction between them become more significant for different countries.The article uses standard analysis,quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis research methods and using Eviews 6.0,based on the study of affection of exchange-rate pass-through using cointegration tests and Granger Causality Tests,research the exchange-rate pass-through affection since the reform of RMB exchange rate by empirical study.The results showed that in this given period about July 2005 to February 2009,the exchange rate is not the reason for price changes.