我国东南沿海热带气旋登陆地点的空间模式分析

Spatial Pattern Analysis of TC Landing Points along Southeast Coast of China

应用网络空间点模式分析方法中的最邻近分析方法以及集聚分析方法,对1949年至2006年我国东南沿海地区热带气旋登陆点进行了分析研究。结果表明:我国东南沿海地区热带气旋登陆点在空间上倾向于集聚分布。根据集聚分析的结果将我国东南沿海地区划分为五个区段,其中登陆频率最高的为广东省雷州半岛到阳江段。本研究中的分段方法与传统方法比较表明,传统的经验分类方法注重的是行政区界限,空间统计方法的分段统计意义明显,分段更加科学合理。

An analysis has been taken about TC landing points along southeast coast of China between 1949 and 2006 with the nearest neigh-bor method and clumping method of network spatial point pattern methods. The results show that：TC landing points along southeast coast of China tend to be clustered. According to the clumping method, the southeast coast will be divided into five sections, one of which has the highest landing frequency ：the Leizhou Peninsula to Yangjiang of Guangdong. The result has been compared with the traditional classification and an analysis of their similarities and differences has been taken. It shows that traditional classification emphasizes on administrative boundary,while the classification based on spatial statistical methods has statistical meaning and is scientific and rational.