基于二叉期权树模型的大型农业开发项目价值评估研究——以洛南县核桃基地建设项目为例

Study on Evaluation of Large-Scale Agricultural Development Project Based on Binomial Tree Option Model——A Case Study in Walnut Base Project in Luonan County

实施大型农业开发项目正成为我国区域农业经济发展的主要手段。根据大型农业开发项目投资额大、风险高、周期长等特点,运用实物期权理论和二叉期权树定价模型,结合里程碑事件确定的方法,对洛南县核桃基地建设项目的价值进行了评价,认为该项目建设经济效益显著,并提出了实施项目风险管理的2个措施。通过与目前常用的DCF方法进行比较,验证了新方法更具有适用性。新方法不仅解决了DCF方法低估农业项目价值问题,而且能充分体现项目决策者合理决策的价值。

Launching large-scale agricultural development project is becoming the main approach to develop regional agricultural economy in China. In accordance with the characteristics of these projects, such as large investment, high risk and long investing period and the combination with method of mile- stone determination, this paper used real option theory and binomial tree pricing model to assess the val- ue of large-scale agricultural development project and verified that this method is more applicable than DCF. This new method not only solves the problem of value underestimating in DCF, but also fully reflects the worthiness of project managers＇ flexibility in decision-making.