关中地区近50年来最高、最低气温时空变化特征分析

Characteristic Analysis on Temporal-spatial Change Trends of Highest and Lowest Temperature in the Past 50 Years of Guanzhong Area

基于关中地区9个气象站点气温资料,采用气候倾向率、趋势系数、普通克里格插值、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等方法对关中地区1960—2009年最高、最低气温的时空变化特征、突变特点和变化周期进行了分析。结果表明,近50年来关中地区最高、最低气温均有明显增温趋势,最高、最低气温增温幅度存在季节差异,冬春季增温幅度最大,夏季最弱;最高、最低气温增温趋势强弱的地区差异也比较显著;最高、最低气温升温突变显著,最低气温突变早于最高气温,最高气温和最低气温突变还存在季节差异;最高、最低气温变化周期显著,均存在显著的16—18年的周期变化和3—5年的动荡周期。

Based on 9 meteorological stations of monthly mean highest and lowest temperature data of 1960—2009 in the Guanzhong Area,characteristics of temporal-spatial changes of highest and lowest temperature over the last 50 years were analyzed by using such methods as climate tendency rate,trend coefficient,Kriging interpolation,Mann-Keall abrupt change test and wavelet analysis.The results indicated that in the past 50 years,the highest and lowest temperature were respectively,increased with a tendency ration of 0.275℃/10a and 0.315℃/l0a.The highest and lowest temperature showed the seasonal increase,such an increase was strong in winter than the other seasons the highest.The warming amplitude was obviously varying from area to area.A strong warming center of highest temperature was formed in the south-west of Guanzhong Area：the trend coefficient was highest over Baoji City and Taibai City.On the other hand,for the lowest trend coefficient was in the center of Guanzhong Area.Both the highest and lowest temperature had quiet obvious abrupt change and the change time was earlier in winter than in other seasons.Both the highest and the lowest temperature had 16—18 years and 3—5 years for the highest and the lowest temperature.