中国经济波动来源于供给还是需求——基于新凯恩斯模型的研究

Are the Economic Fluctuations in China from Supply or Demand——A Study based on New Keynesian Model

本文在新凯恩斯模型的研究框架下,引入了四个额外的冲击——偏好冲击、加成冲击、政府支出冲击和利率冲击,来研究导致我国产出、通胀等宏观经济变量波动的来源。模拟结果显示,来自供给方的冲击对我国经济波动具有重要作用。其中,对通胀影响最大的是加成冲击。除利率冲击外,技术冲击对产出增长率的影响是最大的。因此,在我国以总需求管理为导向的调控措施在熨平经济周期波动方面的效果将是有限的,适时强调供给管理是有其必要性的。

This paper introduces four additional shocks——preference shock,markup shock,government expending shock and interest shock,to study the source of the macroeconomic vola-tility under the framework of New Keynesian model.The simulation results suggest that supply shocks play an important role in Chinese economy.The effect of markup shock on inflation is the largest.Except for interest shock,the impact of technology shock on output is the largest.As a result,the effect of aggregate demand management will be limited in China;the government should emphasize the importance of supply management policies.