考虑人体舒适度的扩展短期负荷预测新方法

New Extended Short-trem Load Forecasting Method Consideration of Human Body Amenity

扩展短期负荷预测源于滚动发电计划的制定,在原计划与实际负荷发生较大偏离(大于3%)时,精确的扩展短期负荷预测有利于制定科学合理的滚动发电计划。运用多种人体舒适度选取相似日是以负荷求导法的思想,综合分析天气因素对用电负荷的影响,提出了考虑多种人体舒适度的相似日的扩展短期负荷预测方法。研究结果表明,该方法在保证运算速度的同时,提高了总体预测准确性。

Extended short term load forecasting was derived from the establishment of rolling generating schedule. When there is a relatively large deviation between the original plan and actual load （larger than 3%）, accurate extended short-term forecasting is helpful for planing rolling generating schedule scientifically and properly. A variety of human body amentiy indicators are used to select similar days with the idea of load derivation, and analyzes the effect of weather conditions on electric load. One method of extended short-term fore-casting based on manifold human body amenity is proposed. Case study results show that the proposed method can improve the global forecasting accuracy while keeping the calc＇ulation speed.