南海问题分析与预测(2010—2011)

Analysis and Forecast of the South China Sea Issue(2010-2011)

2010年南海问题的发展轨迹已经限定了2011年南海问题的发展趋势。2011年,美国与东盟轮值主席国印度尼西亚将有力地影响南海问题的走势。由于矛盾错综复杂,各方期待的《南海地区行为准则》相对于《南海各方行为宣言》行动指南更加难以落实。南海问题除了对相关各国的传统影响仍将继续存在之外,对区域国际关系和地缘政治的影响将有所增加。

The developing trajectory of the South China Sea Issue in 2010 has restricted the＂ trend of the issue in 2011. America and Indonesia, the new chairman on duty of ASEAN, will impress powerful effect on the future of the issue. Limited by the complicated contradictions, there is no chance for the Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea （COC） will be consulted and worked out before the Guidelines for the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea （DOC）. Except the countries around the South China Sea, the issue will produce an increasing effect on the international relations and geo-politics in Asia-Pacific region.