基于生态系统动力学模型的太湖藻类动态模拟

Dynamic simulation study of algal growth in Taihu lake based on an ecosystem dynamics model

本文以生态系统动力学模型CAEDYM为建模框架,紧密结合太湖生态系统结构与功能特点,以河道流量及其物质含量、风场、太阳辐射等为外部函数,以藻类生消及其相关营养盐变化过程为建模核心,建立了考虑内源释放的各种形态氮、磷输移与转化的太湖整体三维生态系统动力学模型。在前人研究工作的基础上,应用太湖2000年实测数据对模型进行率定和验证,确定了模型各参数值,计算结果显示模拟值能较好地拟合实测值,表明所建藻类生态动力学模型能较好地描述藻类及各种营养盐的动态变化,这对揭示太湖藻类"水华"暴发机理有一定的意义。

An integrated algae 3D dynamic model was developed for the Taihu Lake ecosystem.Aimed at the structure and functions of the ecosystem,this model is based on the framework of large-scale ecosystem dynamic model（CAEDYM） and it considers the transport and transformation of all kinds of nitrogen and phosphorous from the sediment internal release.It adopts a modeling kernel of algae generating and vanishing process and external functions of river discharge and its substance content,wind field,solar radiation etc.The model parameters were calibrated and verified using the field data measured in 2000 by means of the previous researchers.The results show that the calculation agrees well with the measurements and that the model can represent the dynamic variations of the algae growth and its relevant nutrients.The model may provide a useful tool to study the mechanism of algae bloom in Taihu Lake.