我国结售汇制下企业持汇行为的研究

Research on the Behavior of Holding Foreign Exchange of Enterprises under the System of Exchange Settlement

从1994年初由外汇额度留成转变为强制结售汇制度以来,我国外汇制度经历了多次变革,直到2007年我国实现了意愿结售汇。结售汇制度约束并影响着市场主体银行、企业的行为。对微观主体行为的研究有利于对外汇制度的衡量、制度设计具有指导意义。本文主要探讨企业持汇行为,首先在投资需求下建立企业最优持汇规模模型分析企业持汇量影响因素,然后在理论模型基础上通过2002年第1季度到2009年第2季度数据分析在交易需求与投资需求下企业持汇量影响因素,最后在此基础上通过虚拟变量的建立探讨结售汇制度中对企业经常项账户外汇限额要求的变动是否对企业持汇量产生显著的影响。模型结果表明外汇限额的放松对企业持汇量有显著影响,使得人民币市场在逐步实现市场化;随着结售汇制度的放松减缓了外汇市场扭曲的供求关系。

The foreign exchange rate policy have had many times reform since year 1994 when the policy changed from foreign exchange retain quota system to mandatory exchange settlement and sales system （MES＆S） in China. Until year 2007, current amount opened completely. MES＆S have the restrict to and influence on two main foreign exchange market subjects--the enterprise and bank~ Researching on the behavior of microcosmic subject is benefit for observing on our policies and consulting for the system design. The author had researched the holding exchange behavior of enterprise. Firstly, set a model which makes a conclusion of the optimal exchange scale by the principle of optimal utility. And then analyze the factors having effect on the mount of the company＇s holding exchange according to the former theory model based on the data from the first quarter of year 2001 to the second quarter of 2009. Lastly, have a research on the effect of four times reform on MES＆S by setting dummies. The results of these models indicate that the loosing of the regular have effect on the mount of the company＇s holding exchange remarkably, RMB＇s exchange rate is on the step to realize marketorient and the distort of exchange market is relieving.