集约型城市经济增长潜力及其影响因素分析——以深圳为例

Analyzing the Economic Growth Potential of the Intensive City and Factors Affecting Its Growth——A Case Study of Shenzhen

分析集约型城市经济增长潜力及其影响因素具有重要意义。通过测算1991—2008年相关因素对样本城市深圳经济增长的贡献率得知:长期以来,该市经济增长模式属于要素推动型,要素投入对经济增长的贡献率高达81.09%;而近年来全要素生产率(TFP)对经济增长的贡献明显上升,表明其经济正逐渐向依靠资本和TFP共同推动的增长模式转变。由此可知,逐步加大TFP的贡献率是集约型城市实现经济高位增长的有效途径。

It is significant to study the economic growth of saturated （ developed and congested） cities. A regressive analyses of the pertinent contributors to the economic growth of Shenzhen （the sample city） from 1991 to 2008 shows： For a long time its economic growth mode was factor-driven and the average contribution rate of the inputfactors was up to 81.09%. However, the contribution of TFP has improved obviously in recent years, and the growth model is gradually transferring to relying on capital and TFP simultaneously. As the conclusion says, it＇s the correct path for a saturated city to continually increase TFP＇s contribution rate to economic growth.