福建省社会消费品零售总额的预测

Forecast of total social retail sales of consumption goods in Fujian Province

以2004年1月至2010年12月福建省社会消费品零售总额月度数据为样本,建立了时间序列季节模型和单整自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,并分别应用它们对2011年各月的指标值进行了预测。在此基础上进行组合预测,得出了2011年1-12月福建省社会消费品零售总额的预测值。预测结果对更好地引导消费具有重要作用,模型建立的过程和方法能为相关研究提供借鉴。

With a monthly data sample of total social retail sales of consumer goods in Fujian,from January 2004 to December 2010,this paper respectively uses seasonal model of time series and ARIMA model to predict monthly data of total social retail sales of consumer goods in 2011,then builds combined forecast model to forecast total social retail sales of consumption goods in every month of 2011 in Fujian Province.The forecasting results play an important role in guiding consumption,and the model establishing process and methods could provide references for other related researches.