台风风神海上石油平台预报服务探讨

Discussion on the Forecasting Services of Oil Platform During Typhoon Fengshen

总结了在对台风风神数值预报失效,预报路径偏东的情况下,预报人员抓住天气形势的细微变化对路径及时修正,并紧密结合用户需求,以"全程跟进,及时沟通,急用户之所急"的高度责任心和服务态度,使海上石油平台1500人安全撤离,避免了人员伤亡和重大经济损失的服务过程。经研究发现:(1)"风神"偏西侧的强对流发展、地面负变压中心、中层正涡度中心、高层正散度中心的存在,以及云图北侧带状黑体区的形成均有利于"风神"西折;(2)在500 hPa图上,"风神"前期西南部有一低压环流中心,后期东北侧高压坝形成,造成"风神"两次北翘。

The service processes of typhoon Fengshen are summarized when the performance of numerical weather prediction is disabled and the typhoon forecasting track is deviated to easterly.At that time, prompt revisions are made to typhoon forecasting track based on the nice changes of weather conditions. During the services,1500 people working on maritime oil platforms are evacuated safely.Therefore,casualty and economic loss are avoided because of our high responsibility and good professional ethics.The results show that：（1） typhoon Fengshen turns westwards because of strong convection on the west side of Fengshen,negative pressure variety at the ground level,plus vorticity center at the middle-level,and plus divergence at the high-level.At the same time,the belt-shaped blackbody area on the north side of ＂Fengshen＂ on cloud chart is also favourable to its turning westwards.（2） At 500 hPa,twice turnings northwards are caused by the low pressure circulation centre on the southwest side of typhoon and the high pressure belt on the northeast side successively.