GM(1,1)模型在湘江株洲段氨氮预测中的应用

Application of NH3-N Predication Based on GM(1,1) Model in Zhuzhou Section of Xiangjiang River

用MATLAB语言建立GM(1,1)模型,以湘江株洲段2003年-2008年氨氮监测值为基础,预测了湘江株洲段2003年-2015年氨氮年平均浓度。所建模型,经精度检验符合预测规律,具有一定的有效性、可行性和适应性。结果表明,建立的GM(1,1)模型精度较高,预测结果与实际监测浓度接近。氨氮年平均浓度呈下降的趋势。

Using the GM（1,1） model built by MATLAB language,the average NH3-N concentration in Zhuzhou section of Xiangjiang River from 2003 to 2015 was forecasted based on the monitored NH3-N value during the period of 2003-2008.The accuracy test shows that this model is in accordance with the forecasting rules and characterized by validity,feasibility and adaptability.According to the forecasting results,this model has high forecasting accuracy which is close to the monitored results.The average annual concentration of NH3-N presents a downtrend.