基于系统动力学的住宅市场系统仿真及预测——以西安市为例

The Simulation and Forecast on the Development of Xi'an Homebuilding Industry Based on System Dynamics

将住宅市场系统分为住宅需求、住宅供给、住宅价格、土地供给四个子系统,寻找各子系统中变量的相互影响与制约的动态关系,并作出定性描述。基于系统动力学原理,利用构建的系统和文献资料数据,对2001年至2015年西安市的住宅市场系统进行了系统仿真和预测。结果表明,模型能够非常近似地反映西安市住宅产业的历史发展和现实状况,对于研究正处于快速发展阶段的国内各大城市住宅市场具有指导意义。

The housing industry system is divided into four subsystems,namely,housing demand,housing supply,housing prices,and land supply.This paper first describes the dynamic relationship between each variable in every subsystem and how they interact and constraint each other in a qualitative way.Then using the statistical data and the model established in this paper,based on the theory of system dynamics and taking the example of Xi＇an,the operation of the housing industry system is simulated and then forecasted from 2001 to 2015.The results show that the model precisely describes the historical development and the present situation of the housing industry in Xi＇an.The paper provides useful information for the major cities in China whose housing industries are developing rapidly.