青海牧区近10年牧草产量变化与气象条件的关系

Relationship between Herbage Yields and Climate in Pastoral Areas of Qinghai in Recent Decade

利用DPS统计中的相关、回归等方法分析近10年青海高原牧区5站点牧草产量变化与气象因子的关系,并建立了牧草产量的气象条件多元回归拟合模型。结果表明:近10年来牧草产量的年最高值河南、甘德总体呈下降趋势,曲麻莱、海北、兴海总体呈上升趋势;5站点牧草产量5月变幅最大为兴海,变幅最小的为海北,6—8月变幅最大的是曲麻莱,变幅最小的是海北;5站点8月牧草产量形成期总体上日照充足,降水除河南阶段性较充沛外,其余受限制,温度除河南在牧草生长季内当光温出现匹配不当时呈负相关外,其余均受限制;气象因子与5站点年最高牧草产量的拟合模式拟合效果较好,均可通过0.01检验。

By use of DPS statistics,regression analysis,and other methods,an analysis is made of the herbage yield changes in the recent 10 years in five sites over the Qinghai Plateau（Henan,Gande,Qumalai,Haibei,and Xinghai） and the relationship between meteorological factors and herbage yields.The simulation results show that： Over the past 10 years,the highest annual herbage production was in Henan,an overall downward trend in Gande,and overall upward trend in Qumalai,Haibei,and Xinghai.In May,the variation amplitude of forage yields was the greatest at Xinghai and least at Haibei in five sites.From June to August,the variation amplitude of forage yields was the greatest at Qumalai,and least at Haibe.In August,during the formation stage of forage yields,there was abundant sunshine and ample rainfall,but the temperature was not high enough in Gande,Qumalai,Haibei,and Xinghai.In Henan,there was negative correlation between light and temperature during the growing season.A good fitting model of meteorological factors and the annual forage yields of the five sites is obtained,with the significance level being greater than 0.01,and the fitting results can be used as references for local livestock farming services.