物流配送车辆的干扰管理序贯决策方法研究

Sequential Decision Methods for Disruption Management in Distribution

针对物流配送系统中车辆由于干扰事件而产生的时间延迟,运用干扰管理的思想,首先对干扰事件演进过程进行分析,提出了时间延迟的干扰管理问题的多阶段划分方法,然后通过对偏离成本的探讨,建立了兼顾物流供应商和客户两个主体的时间延迟度量模型,进而形成了处理时间延迟干扰问题的序贯决策方法。最后采用一个具体实例,验证了上述方法的可行性。

Distribution plays a key role in the logistics management because satisfactory delivery services can increase customer satisfaction.However,many factors,such as vehicle breakdown,traffic jam,and inclement weather conditions,can disrupt delivery services.This study aims to improve customer satisfaction by improving the quality of delivery services.Current literature on disruption management primarily focuses on strategies to cope with disruption events after they occur.Very few studies focus on managing disruption events during the occurrence.In addition,there is a need to evaluate the effect of delayed delivery on the quality of delivery services.Understanding this effect can enable logistics managers to make effective decisions on improving the quality of delivery services.This study is primarily based on organizational research and behavioral science theories.In the first part of the study,we adopted the stage division method of disruption management to thoroughly analyze the delayed delivery and define key factors.This understanding enabled us to derive a time-delayed measurement model incorporating those multi-stage factors.We further measured the system deviation costs as the function of future lost costs and extra transportation costs.Based on the stage division method,the delayed delivery was divided into sequential and correlated stages.This sequential decision making method can enable decision makers to choose a coping strategy in each stage according to the conditions of present stage and the development of future stages.Our study showed that disruption management can help improve the quality of delivery service in real-time based on the proposed sequentialdecision-making method.This finding provides not only a new way to cope with disruption events during their occurrence but also enrich the current literature on disruption management.By combining the Data Acquisition Technology and Real Time Monitoring Technology,this study proposes a useful decision tool for real-time scheduling and improves the quality of delivery service for logistics enterprises.