基于Bayes需求预测更新的供应链合作策略研究

A Policy for Supply Chain Coordination with Bayes Demand Forecasting

在预测误差与提前期成对数线性关系,赶工成本与提前期成分段线性关系条件下,研究了基于Bayes需求预测更新的易逝品供应链合作策略问题。通过建立零售商独立决策的优化模型,讨论了模型最优解的存在性,论证了供应链合作的必要性。进一步提出了三参数的供应链风险分担契约来协调分散决策的供应链,分析了实现供应链渠道协调的条件。并通过数值分析和参数的灵敏度分析说明了上述结论以及算法。分析结果表明,这种供应链契约不仅能够实现供应链利润最大化,而且能够通过契约参数的调整,按照供应链成员增值能力的大小灵活划分供应链成员之间的利润分配比例。

Demand variety and long replenishment lead time are two common characteristics of seasonal products.The main task of managing supply chains for seasonal products is to minimize overstocks and back orders.Institutionalizing quick response（QR） policies to reduce demand uncertainty is a practical approach.These two major issues are related to QR policy.The first issue is to determine when to order and how much to order from a buyer＇s perspective.The second issue is to learn how to motivate supply chain partners in order to achieve a win-win situation from the perspective of the entire supply chain.The current literature neglects the effect of lead time on forecasting error and supply chain collaboration.This paper investigates supply chain coordination policies using Bayes demand forecast model for a perishable-product supply chain.We proposed a demand forecasting model to help optimize ordering quantity and lead time.The need for supply chain coordination was discussed based on the proposed model.In addition,we proposed a three-parameter risk-sharing contract to coordinate the decentralization of decisions across the supply chain.Channel coordination conditions were derived from the proposed contract.An optimal search algorithm and a sensitivity analysis of parameters were also provided to illustrate conclusions and procedures.Our test results showed that such a contract can not only maximize supply-chain profits,but also flexibly distributes profits among supply-chain members in proportion to each supply-chain member＇s contribution.Section 1 discussed three major assumptions related to the management of seasonal products.Seasonal products have high demand uncertainty which can cause inventory and backorders.Retailers often dispose inventory after the season at a discounted price.This paper assumes that retailers only have one ordering opportunity through the entire season.The objective of a retailer＇s decision is to maximize its profit.Lead time is composed of n mutually-independent components.Additionally,lead time can be crashed with additional operating costs.Information about sales of related items can be used to reduce forecast error for the expected demand.An updated demand forecast can be obtained by utilizing Bayes＇ theorem.Section 2 formulated solutions to maximizing a retailer＇s profit by making independent decisions,and the entire supply chain＇s profit by making integrated decisions.We further discussed the attributes of the proposed optimal models as follows.Lemma 1 The maximum value of the retailer＇s expected profit ∏r（q,t） exists.Retailers can benefit from information upates.The maximum value of the entire supply chain＇s expected profit ∏l（q,t） exists.The entire supply chain can also benefit from information upates.Lemma 2 Without coordination,the optimal decision to maximize the retailer＇s profit may decrease profits of the entire supply chain and the manufacturer;that is,∏rD ≥ ∏rC,∏mD ≤ ∏Cm,∏lD ≤ ∏lC.In contrast,∏rD,∏mD and ∏lD are profits of the retailer,the manufacturer and the entire supply chain under decentralized decision scenario;∏Cr,∏mC and ∏lC are the profits of the retailer,the manufacturer and the entire supply chain under centralized decision scenario.Based on the findings,we further developed an efficient iteration algorithm to locate the optimal solution.Section 3 developed a three-parameter contract to help coordinate supply chain operations by combining buy-back and risk-share contracts.The three-parameter contract can arbitrarily allocate profits of supply chain channels between manufacturers and retailers by tuning a range of w values.Section 4 presented a numerical analysis of the proposed models and algorithms.Our analysis results showed that the algorithm is efficient and the three-parameter contract is effective and flexible to coordinate supply chain operations.In summary,decisions made on the order quantity and lead time have important effect on supply chain parties.Effective collaboration between supply chain partners can obtain the win-win situation.