我国货币政策中介目标选择的思考

Research on Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy in China

货币政策中介目标的确定关系到货币政策最终目标是否能够实现,然而无论是从相关性、可控性还是可测性上来看,货币供应量作为我国央行中介目标客观上已经不合时宜。在利率和汇率尚未完全市场化的情况下,解决货币供应量目标制存在问题的方法是放弃任何中介目标,采取通货膨胀率目标制。

Determination of the intermediate target of monetary policy relates to the materialization of ultimate objective of monetary policy. But no matter in terms of the correlation, controllability or testability, money supply has appeared to be inappropriate to be chosen as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. Given that the exchange rate and interest rate have not been fully market-oriented, the way out of the existing problem in money supply target is to give up any intermediate target, and adopt inflation target.