后金融危机时期中国货币政策选择——基于美国QE2经济后果的分析

The Monetary Policy Choice of China during the Post-crisis Period——Analysis of the Effects of U.S. QE2

"二次量化宽松政策"(简称QE2)是美联储在国内经济提振乏力、失业率居高不下以及世界经济复苏不平衡的背景下启动的。QE2或许能够使美国走出通缩的泥潭,也有可能催生资产泡沫,酝酿新的金融危机,但却无疑给世界经济,尤其是新兴市场国家的经济继续复苏蒙上了一层阴影,全球热钱将更加泛滥,世界经济秩序将遭到破坏,各国外汇储备将进一步缩水等。对此,我国中央银行货币政策必须加强与财政政策的配合,适时调整外汇储备资产结构,扩大本币结算合作,积极应对QE2的挑战。

Quantitative Easing two is being implemented by the Fed under the context of American domestic economic re-cession,high unemployment rate and imbalanced international economy recovery.QE2 might pull American economy out of the deflation,or cause asset booms,leading to a new financial crisis.Undoubtedly this policy will negatively affect the sustainable international economy recovery,especially for the emerging economies,with the result of more hot money all over the world,the destroyed international economy order,the continuing depreciating foreign reserves.In response to QE2,China should strength the combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy,appropriately adjust the structure of foreign reserves,and expand domestic currency settlement cooperation.