瑞利模型与水驱曲线的综合预测法

A Comprehensive Forecasting Method of Rayleigh Model and Water Drive Curve

瑞利模型和水驱特征曲线是油藏工程中两种重要的预测方法,但两者都有一定的局限性。将瑞利模型与甲型、丙型水驱特征曲线进行联立求解,建立了含水率与开发时间之间的函数关系式。这种方法可以预测水驱开发油田的含水率、产油量、产水量、产液量和相应累积产量随开发时间的变化规律,而且还可以预测水驱油田的可采储量。经大庆油田萨北过渡带的实例计算表明,将该方法用于油田开发动态预测,不仅克服了水驱特征曲线中缺少时间的问题,而且克服了产量预测模型中缺少含水率的问题。

The water drive curve and the Rayleigh model are two important forecasting methods in oil reservoir engineering, but both of them have some limitations. Based on combined solution of the Rayleigh model and the water drive curve of A and C types, a functional correlation of water content vs. production history（t） is developed. For water drive oilfield,the method can be used to not only predict water content, oil production, water production, liquid production and cumulative production with different time, but also predict recoverable reserves. By applying them into Daqing Sabei oilfield, it is indicated that the methods can be well used in performance prediction of an oilfield development,because such problems without time factor in curve prediction model and without water content in production prediction model have been all solved.