延迟退休年龄与养老保险收支余额:作用机制及政策效应

The Postponement of Retirement Age and Payment Balance of Pension Plan: Mechanisms and Policy Effects

文章通过连续时间养老金收支模型分析认为延迟退休年龄对养老保险计划收支余额的影响来自四个方面的效应,即缴费年限效应、领取年限效应、替代率效应和差异效应。改革的最终效果是上述四种效应共同作用的结果。短期看,前两种效应占据主导;长期看,后两种效应也具有显著影响。延迟退休年龄的政策效果和工资增长率、养老金增长率、改革速度以及未来参保人口结构有关。理论分析和实证检验结果表明,无论从改革过程还是从对养老保险计划收支余额的影响看,延迟退休年龄都是一个复杂而渐进的过程,延迟退休年龄必将减轻政府在养老保险方面负担的传统说法并不全面。

By the analysis of a continuous-time model of pension payments, this paper considers that the effects of the postponement of retirement age on the payment balance of pension plan stem from payment period effect, obtainment period effect, substitution ratio effect and differential effect,which iointly determine the outcome of the reform of postponing re tirement age. In the short term, the first two effects play the dominant role, and in the long term, the last two effects are also remarkable. The policy effects of postponing retirement age are correlated with wage growth rate, pension growth rate, reform pace and future insured structure. The theoretical and empirical analyses indicate that the postponement of retirement age is a complex and gradual process and there is some doubt about the traditional opinion that the postponement of retirement age undoubtedly leads to the reduction in the burden of pension insurance on governments.