中国改革的拖延、危机冲击与突破:分析框架与数值模拟

Delays,Crisis Shock and Breakthrough of China's reform:A Theoretical Framework and Numerical Simulation

中国改革进程表现出强烈的拖延—危机冲击—突破的特征。文章通过将改革拖延和危机冲击对改革的影响这两个相互关联的问题纳入统一的分析框架,试图为理解中国经济转型过程中的改革"拖延与突破"现象提供理论分析基础。结论表明:随着既得利益集团数目的增加,权力结构失衡导致改革推进越来越困难;成本分担问题是影响改革能否推进的主要因素;危机冲击通过影响改革相关方的成本分布推动改革突破;如果危机推动了改革突破,危机有利于社会总福利增加。

The reform process in China showed a strong ＂delay-crisisBreakthrough＂ feature. Based on extended Alesina-Drazen Model, we analyze why reforms are delayed and the mechanism of the crisis to promote reform. This paper reached the following conclusions： First, with the increasing of the number of interest groups, it is more and more difficult to promote the reform; Second, in the process of reform, the cost allocation is the main factor; Third, if the crisis contributed to the reform, the crisis is con- ducive to improve overall social welfare.