江苏省病毒性肝炎流行趋势GIS空间分析

Spatial distribution of viral hepatitis prevalence in Jiangsu province by geographic information system

目的对江苏省病毒性肝炎流行的空间分布规律进行分析,为制定科学的防治政策提供科学依据。方法利用江苏省2003-2009年所有县(市)病毒性肝炎发病资料建立数据库,进行空间自相关分析、趋势面分析和空间回归分析,确定江苏省病毒性肝炎发病聚集区域、流行特点和未来趋势。结果建立江苏省病毒性肝炎疫情分布图,得到南京市城区、武进区、无锡市城区、常州市城区、苏州市城区5个发病地区具有空间自相关性,其局部Moran I值分别为-0.000 145、0.000 253、0.000 284、0.000 357、0.000 184,南京市城区表现为负自相关性,武进市、常州市城区、无锡市城区、苏州市城区4个地区表现为正自相关性;建立江苏省病毒性肝炎疫情趋势面分析及空间回归分析模型:Y=-227.29 531×LON-439.43 745×LAT+443 52.8 914,江苏省病毒性肝炎的空间分布呈现出局部的空间集聚现象,确定出南京市城区、无锡市城区、苏州市城区、淮安市城区和徐州市城区5个高发病区域。结论江苏省毒性肝炎发病具有明显的地域分布规律,相关部门应根据其病毒性肝炎发病空间分布相关特点及未来分布趋势,制定预防和控制病毒性肝炎传播的措施。

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of viral hepatitis prevalence in Jiangsu province.Methods The data on viral hepatitis incidents in Jiangsu province from 2003 to 2009 were collected and analyzed.The statistic information was revealed by spatial autocorrelation analysis,trend surface analysis,and spatial regression analysis to find the high prevalence areas and to forecast the epidemic trend of viral hepatitis.Results The results indicated that the prevalence of the disease in some areas had spatial aggregation and the prevalence of the disease exhibited spatial autocorrelation in some parts of Jiangsu province,such as Nanjing,Wujin,Wuxi,Changzhou,and Suzhou,with local Moran＇s I indexes of-0.000145,0.000253,0.000284,0.000357,and 0.000184.A significant negative autocorrelation was observed for viral hepatitis epidemic in Nanjing area and significant positive autocorrelation in Wujin,Changzhou,Wuxi,and Suzhou area.A trend surface and a spatial regression model were established for viral hepatitis incidence in Jiangsu province with a formula of Y=-227.29 531×LON-439.43 745×LAT＋443 52.8 914.The results of the analyses confirmed that Nanjing,Wuxi,Suzhou,Huai＇an,and Xuzhou were the five highest prevalence areas of viral hepatitis.Conclusion The incidence of viral hepatitis is obviously distributed geographically in Jiangsu province and effective measures should be taken to control the prevalence of viral hepatitis.