后危机时代国际货币体系将走向何方?

Whither the International Monetary System after the Global Financial Crisis?

世界经济越来越趋向多极化,而当前的国际货币体系却依然是美元一家独大,这种失衡不可避免地产生矛盾,也是导致2008年全球金融危机的重要原因。危机之后,许多论争多集中在改革当今以美元为中心的国际货币体系的必要性上,而对改革的现实可能性则没有深入探讨。从理论上讲,稳定有效的国际货币体系必须解决国际清偿力、国际收支不平衡的调整和对该体系内的核心货币的信心问题。中短期内美元的中心地位仍然难以撼动,但美国实施的量化宽松货币政策及其日益膨胀的赤字和债务意味着风险的蓄积,将影响人们对美元的信心,并为其他币种的国际化创造了机遇。

In the present international monetary system,the U.S.dollar remains dominant.This imbalance inevitably produces contradictions.An important contributing factor to the current global financial crisis is the monetary system based on the U.S.dollar.Since the crisis,several debates have concentrated on the feasibility and necessity for the reform of the present international monetary system.Theoretically speaking,a stable and effective international monetary system must resolve the issues of international liquidity,result in an adjustment of the imbalance between revenue and expenditure internationally,and increase confidence in the system's core currency.In the short term,the central status of the dollar can hardly be challenged,but the quantitative easing policy adopted by the U.S.,along with its expanding deficits and debts,which implies an accumulation of risks,will all affect people's confidence in the U.S.dollar and create an opportunity for the internationalization of other currencies.