未来气候情景下中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度变化

Changes of Citrus Climate Risk in Subtropics of China

选取中国亚热带地区273个气象站点1961—2005年逐日气象资料,结合IPCC SRES A2情景下未来亚热带地区温度、降水模拟数据,综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,对未来中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险性变化进行了研究。结果表明,中国亚热带地区柑桔风险度出现了不同速度和形式的趋势性变化,近46 a来,柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加最快;同时中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的气候风险性对全球气候变化的响应也存在着区域分异性,中国亚热带柑桔气候风险在其北部边缘地带和西部高山地区风险度是降低的,在中部和南部风险度是升高的,尤其以中部地带升高最快。

Based on the daily meteorological data of 273 stations from 1961 to 2005,simulated temperature and precipitation data under future climate scenarios（SRES A2）,and by using citrus climate risk model,the climate risk for citrus in subtropics of China is studied.The results show that the changing rate and trend of citrus climate risk have different expressions in different zones,and citrus risk over the 46 years has an increasing trend,especially increasing rapidness from the early 1980s.The responses of citrus climate risk to global warming are different between the different zones,the study shows that the citrus climate risk decreases northward and in west mountainous area of subtropics of China,and the citrus climate risk increases in middle and south of subtropics of China,especially in middle of subtropics of China.So the northern part of subtropics of China will be suitable for the cultivation of citrus in the future,while the western region of subtropics which is unsuitable for citrus growing will become possible in the future.