圆形分布法分析江苏省间日疟发病季节变化

Analysis of seasonal variations of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Jiangsu Province with round distribution

目的分析江苏省1997～2009年度疟疾发病的季节性,研究江苏省疟疾流行特征,为积极防治疟疾流行提供参考依据。方法收集江苏省疾病监测信息报告网络直报管理系统中间日疟疫情资料,按月统计间日疟发病数,用圆形分布法分析江苏省间日疟的发病高峰日和高峰期。结果江苏省间日疟发病具有明显的季节性(P<0.01),各年份发病高峰日不全相同(P<0.01),平均发病高峰日为8月5日,发病高峰日最早出现在1997年的7月14日,最晚出现在2006年的9月1日,二者之间相差了49d。结论江苏省间日疟存在明显的季节高峰,其发病高峰日多集中在8月份;间日疟流行高峰期延长与全球气候变暖之间是否存在关联还有待商榷。

Aim To analyze the seasonal distribution of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2009. Methods The data of Plasmodium vivax malaria prevalence and control were collected from malaria network system and the peak incidence day were analyzed by yearly round analysis. Results The incidence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in jiangsu showed a significant seasonal distribution feature （P〈0.01）. August 15 was the average peak incidence day with yearly variation. The peak day appeared earlier in July 14,1997 and later in September 1,2006 with time gap of 49 days. Conclusion There is a significant seasonal peak in Plasmodium vivx malaria infection in this province. Mostly in August. But further observation has to be made for elucidate the relationship between elongation of seasonal incidence peak of Plasmodium vivax malaria and global warming.