柔性路面弯沉设计的可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Flexible Pavement Deflection Design

本文将可靠性理论、概率论和数理统计的基本原理运用到柔性路面设计中,考虑各设计参数的随机性和变异性,提出了柔性路面弯沉设计中六个基本设计参数:E_0、E_1、E_2、h、H和N_e的概率模型;应用蒙特卡洛法对柔性路面弯沉设计的可靠性进行分析,并讨论了柔性路面弯沉设计可靠性的影响因素;最后,以现行《公路柔性路面设计规范》(JTJ014,1987)为基础,提出柔性路面可靠性设计的基本方法。

This paper, applying the basic principle of reliability theory,probability and mathematical statistics to flexible pavement design and comsidering the stochastics and the variatility of each design parameters,advances the probability models of six basic design parameters [E_0,E_1,E_2,h,H and N_e] in flexible pavement deflection design.Applying the MONTE CARLO simulation method,this paper analyses the reliability of flexible pave- ment deflection design,and discusses the influence factors to the reliability. At last, based on present 'THE STANDARDS OF ROAD FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT DESIGN' (JTJ014, 1987), a reliability design method has been advanced.