入世十年我国对外贸易的宏观环境影响研究

Post-ante EIA on China's 10 Years WTO Accession

入世十年来,我国对外贸易迅猛发展,贸易价值量取得巨大顺差,但其背后却孕育着巨大的资源环境逆差。本文通过建立贸易的环境核算方法,运用我国"能源-经济-环境"投入-产出及CGE模型分析了2002、2005、2007年的投入产出表,对进出口产品虚拟污染物进行定量核算,衡量入世十年我国对外贸易的宏观环境影响。研究表明,入世十年来,我国净出口产品虚拟SO2排放约占全国排放总量的1/4;净出口产品虚拟CO2排放占全国排放总量超过30%;净出口产品COD排放占全国排放总量的20%以上。在不采取其他措施的情况下,我国在未来20年仍将处于巨大的贸易环境逆差之中。

Since WTO accession, China has experienced a rapid development of foreign trade, with a magnitude of trade surplus in terms of monetary value but a huge deficit in terms of resources and environment. This paper measures the virtual pollutants embed- ded in the imported and exported products by using the trade-to-environment accounting methods, more specifically focusing on post-ante EIA China＇s 10 years WTO accession. Studies show that, during the ten years, the virtual SO2 of China＇s net exports have accounted for about 1/4 of national total SO2 emissions, and virtual CO2 of net exports over 30%, while virtual COD of net exports over 20%. If there are no further control measures to be taken beside the current policies, the huge environment deficit caused by foreign trade will be remaining in China in the next decades.