“十二五”我国绿色贸易转型方案研究

Study on China's Green Trade Transformation Scenarios for 12th Five-Year Plan

改革开放以来,出口导向型的增长模式在拉动我国经济快速发展的同时,对资源环境造成了巨大压力,转变外贸发展模式、实现绿色贸易转型已经成为"十二五"贸易发展的重要方向。本文设计了绿色贸易转型的快速转型、中速转型与慢速转型三种具体方案,并运用中国"能源-经济-环境"CGE模型,在对2010-2020年期间中国对外贸易引致的进出口虚拟碳排放量、进出口虚拟SO2排放量、进出口虚拟COD排放量模拟计算的基础上,考察了不同转型方案对经济产生的影响及其减排效果。研究结果表明,快速、中速和慢速转轨方案对宏观经济指标的影响均较小,但快速和中速转轨方案对少数几个部门出口影响较大,三种转轨方案均能在方案既定的时间内实现贸易的环境平衡。

In the past three decades, the export-oriented economic growth mode has been driving China＇s rapid economic development as well as causing great pressures on China＇s environment and resources. Changing the mode of foreign trade development towards green trade transformation is very significant for trade development during 12th five year plan period. Three trade transformation scenarios, including fast, moderate and slow, are designed in this paper. And based on the estimation on virtual CO2, SO2 and COD emissions embedded in imports and exports in China from 2011 to 2020, the impacts of different green trade transformation scenarios on economy and emission reduction are explored by using China＇s ＂3E＂ CGE model. The results indicate that all of the three scenarios have minor impacts on macroeconomic indicators, but both the fast and the moderate have great influence on a few exporting sectors. The goal of environmental balance of trade can be achieved within the time frame under any of the three transformation scenarios.