油田产量预报的一种方法

A New Method for Forecasting the Output of an Oil-Field

本文提出一种含延迟的自回归模型。这种模型将传统的自回归模型作为其一种特殊情况,以期扩大最佳预报模型的选择范围,从而提高预报的精度。作者利用这种模型对某油田产油量数据进行了预报,并与自回归模型的预报结果作了比较,说明了本文方法的良好效果。

This paper presents a new forecasting model called Lag Autoregressive Model. This model takes the conventional AR model as a special condition so as to decrease the fitting errors, and to enhance the accuracy of forecasting the output. This model is used for forecasting the output data of an oil field a comparison between the two shows that the new method is superior to that of AR model.